Political consultant Aleksandar Music argues that the recent tensions between Montenegro and Serbia do not represent a fundamental deterioration in bilateral relations, which he sees as constrained by deeper structural issues. He believes Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic’s influence is weakening, while Prime Minister Milojko Spajic has shown only limited willingness to assert Montenegro’s independence. Music says the greater long-term concern is the growing influence of Andrija Mandic and the weakening of Spajic’s PES, rather than Vucic himself.
Music views the differences between Mandic and Milan Knezevic as mainly tactical and personal, rather than ideological, arguing that their broader political goals remain similar. He believes Mandic is increasingly influential within the government and could play a decisive role in Montenegro’s future direction, particularly in its relationship with Serbia. According to Music, the key factors will be the next election results, Mandic’s external support and whether PES can maintain its political influence.
He also questions recently published party-rating polls, warning that such surveys can influence voters and may not accurately reflect political dynamics. Music expects the opposition to improve its result but says the governing bloc still has significant advantages, including resources, external support and the backing of the Serbian Orthodox Church. He concludes that PES is likely to remain the key player in forming the next government, although the outcome remains highly uncertain.
