The political struggle within the Serbian bloc is heating up. Andrija Mandic now finds himself in much the same position Zdravko Krivokapic was in a few years ago, although Vucic hasn’t gone after members of Mandic’s family in Belgrade like he did to Krivokapic’s children. I don’t know whether this is still the case, but Mandic’s son had been given a job at the Belgrade office of a Montenegrin state-owned company. No one appears to be bothering him there, or at least we have heard nothing to suggest otherwise.
Many will say the conflict is staged, but the fight on social media among the third-tier operatives on both sides is quite visible. Yesterday, I mentioned Vucic’s servants in Montenegro, but so far only the worst of them have spoken out. The second tier remains on standby. Drazenn is still wisely keeping quiet. Borba continues to hedge its bets. It’s not going after either side. They are trying to keep the peace in the family and hoping for reconciliation. A few days ago, Metropolitan Joanikije’s brother also lashed out at Bishop Metodije and Patriarch Porfirije. Andrija Mandic’s sister has been giving as good as she gets in her exchanges with Vukovic on social media. Vukovic, for his part, has for some time been attacking Joanikije and Gojko Perovic.
The comments about Andrija Mandic beneath Vukovic’s posts and those of similar figures are about as vicious as they come. For some activists and followers of the ZBCG Front – or whatever they’re called these days, if the organization even still exists in that form – Mandic is now the greatest enemy of the Serbian cause, a traitor and even an Ustasha.
Rakovic has also voiced his opinion. He and Pipun have now confirmed what all of us already knew: that Belgrade directly interfered in the 2020 elections. That is not the version we hear from Mandic and his coalition partners, who nowadays are increasingly eager to recall the partnership between Vucic and Milo Djukanovic, something they didn’t mention at the time.
Everyone is hoping for reconciliation, or at least a truce, while also expecting a storm. As they claim, someone has “demonically” sown discord among the Serbs, and that person controls Andrija Mandic. And it can be anyone. The explanations range from antisemitic attacks on Mandic’s adviser, Ms Ofner Bokan, and conspiracy theories about Jews sowing discord among Serbs, to claims that the European Union is behind the split, and mutual accusations between Pipun’s and Mandic’s teams that one side or the other is working for the mafia.
The problem exists, and no conspiracy is required to explain it. The reasons are structural. Whoever comes to power in Montenegro becomes financially and institutionally independent of Belgrade. The risks and costs of withdrawing loyalty from Vucic are reduced to a minimum. Mandic has the authority that comes with his position, which guarantees him a degree of autonomy, and he’s making use of it.
However, we’re entering an election year, and Vucic’ll probably try to punish disloyalty. Even so, the regime in Belgrade has been reduced to relying on the worst kind of loyalists, people incapable of mounting any serious operation. Vucic himself is capable, but years in power have depleted the resources available to him for co-opting others. In Serbia, he still has a monopoly, but outside Serbia he can hardly project power anywhere except Bosnia, where Dodik remains loyal to him because, unlike Mandic, he has no alternative.
Mandic is now in a position of power in Montenegro and has, to some extent, co-opted figures such as Drazen, Pipun and others who still don’t dare say a word. They seem unsure about whom they should stop obeying. For now, Pipun is compensating for his inability to attack Mandic by going after the Democrats and Spajic. But in doing so, he’s only weakening his own position, because he has no realistic way of making inroads into their voters. The only voters naturally open to him is Mandic’s. And if he wants to break into that constituency and take over leadership of the pack, he will have to challenge the old lion. But it looks like that this Ivo Vrana from Zeta simply doesn’t have the nerve to do it.
(The opinions and views of our columnists aren’t necessarily those of the CdM news team)
